August 11, 2022
Portland Price Trends
08-01-21 01-01-22 07-01-22 08-04-22 08-11-22
#1 SWW (bu) 9.25 10.70 9.50 8.80 8.80
White Club 10.75 12.45 9.50 8.80 8.80
DNS 14% 10.33 10.78 10.28 9.80 9.95
HRW 11.5% 8.37 9.81 10.23 9.70 9.90
#2 Corn (ton) 245.00 274.00 278.00 273.00 281.00
#2 Barley 200.00 240.00 245.00 235.00 235.00
Wheat...The throes of harvest season are becoming more apparent in the
west coast white wheat market, as basis levels weaken against strength in
Chicago futures. Nearby basis has dropped 40 cents over the past week but
flat prices have held the bottom of the recent range at the $8.80 level.
By comparison, protein wheats are up 30 to 40 cents from earlier this week.
Weekly Sales...USDA reported an improved pace of export demand for U.S.
wheat last week, coming in at 13.2 mb to put year-to-date commitmentst at
316 mb. Overall sales stand 1% behind a year ago and 10% behind the five-
year average pace. Hard red winter booked 7.1 mb, mostly to Mexico, and
with 95 mb in sales sets 15% behind a year ago and 10% below average. Hard
red spring registered 4.7 mb to put commitments at 89 mb, which is down 4%
from a year ago but 28% ahead of average. White wheat saw 1.7 mb in sales
and with 70 mb in commitments, sets 21% ahead of a year ago but 25% behind
the average pace.
Wheat Buyers...Looking at the complexion of U.S. wheat buyers shows that
while sales to traditional Pacific Rim countries is down from a year ago,
south and central American sales are up. Chinese demand is down 55% from a
year ago and sales to the Philippines, Japan and Taiwan are each lagging by
roughly 10%. Commitments from Mexico are up 2%, Brazil is up 35% and sales
to Columbia, Guatemala and Panama are substantially higher than a year ago.
Indonesia and Yemen have also bought 7 mb versus no purchases a year go.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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