OMAHA (DTN) -- Iowa farmers would have been hard-pressed to top 2024's record corn yield, but the DTN Digital Yield Tour points to Iowa possibly seeing again a record corn crop. The soybean crop may also come close to a record.

USDA's Risk Management Agency estimated an Iowa corn yield record of 218 bushels per acre (bpa) in 2024. The state's soybean record was set in 2023 at 63.6 bpa. DTN's yield models, which inform the tour, are trained on RMA's data.

Iowa had heavy rainfall throughout July, with some farmers seeing more than a foot of rain. At least a few of those showers dumped 5 to 6 inches at a time. Still, the crops have largely managed, with some exceptions in lowland areas.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 223.7 bushel per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2024: 205 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 205.6 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 62.3 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 59.4 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 61 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second season that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/…

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Dryness and drought were noteworthy across a large portion of the state to begin the planting season, but good rainfall that started in April largely continued through the end of July and quickly eliminated a lot of those concerns," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Small pockets across the south didn't quite see the rainfall that those elsewhere enjoyed, and that may have impacted pollination to a degree, too. But overall, the state has seen a really good run of rainfall this summer that has helped to make it the king in production this year."

"That hasn't come without some issues, though," Baranick added. "There was a derecho that tore across northern and eastern portions of the state July 28-29. It wasn't nearly as strong or damaging as the one that occurred five years earlier in 2020, but there could be some hidden damage there," he said.

"There also has been a lot of rainfall that may have produced some ponding and damage that just won't be seen until the combines roll. Some areas saw more than 20 inches of rain between June and July. It's hard to argue that it was a detriment, though, as these events were not extreme nor in rapid succession. There was potential there to dry out between heavy rainfall events in most cases."

MARKET COMMENTS

"Iowa is the King of Corn, and that has never been more apparent than through this growing season, which has been almost picture perfect from a rainfall and reported conditions standpoint," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "There may be some areas in the south to monitor for issues when harvest arrives, but overall, with a crop rating in early August northwards of 85% good to excellent, it is hard to argue against a bin-busting corn crop for Iowa in 2025, barring a late-season shift in weather," he said.

"On soybeans, an early August estimate just above the five-year average in Iowa is a fair forecast at this point, given as of early August, there is still a lot of important weather to get through for the 2025 soybean crop. That being said, conditions up to this point certainly point to above-average production potential," Montgomery said.

OBSERVATIONS

-- Ralph Lents, Adair County, Iowa:

Ralph Lents, a farmer in southwest Iowa, said his crops "look really great" with no real poor spots in his fields. Lents mentioned possibly having some rust issues, but no tar spot or other crop maladies.

"I guess it's just a matter of what kind of weather we get here in August to finish up, but right now it looks like a really awesome crop," Lents said. "I'd hate to put a number on this corn crop, but it very well -- right now, I'd say it's the best crop I've ever raised."

Lents said his soybeans also began podding early, during the last week of July. As of last week, they continue to look healthy.

"The economic outlook doesn't look real good. I think there'll be a lot of money lost to farming this year, even with good yields," Lents said.

Lents' best years have averaged about 205 bpa for corn, but he said he's expecting about 230 bpa this year. "We don't have it in the bin yet, but that's where I'm at today. I think I'm about 25 bushels better than my best average, ever."

-- Kelly Nieuwenhuis, O'Brien County, Iowa:

In northwest Iowa, Kelly Nieuwenhuis is also thinking he's going to have his best corn crop. Nieuwenhuis said he felt like he dodged a bullet when a derecho hit his area during the last week of July.

"The trees took a beating. Rooftops on hog buildings were hit. Grain bins took a beating if they were empty, but the corn looks like ... it never blew," he said. "We've got a good crop. Now, if we can just avoid the hailstorms and high winds to get it harvested."

Conditions were great for planting in April. Nieuwenhuis said he had all his corn and soybeans planted by May 8.

Corn emergence was about perfect, but the soybeans struggled to come up until rains began in May.

"Our beans were still coming up a month after we planted, but we treat all of our beans and I think that made a difference," he said.

So far, the soybean nodes are close together with pods developing about every 2 inches. "I've counted some clusters with as many as nine pods in them," Nieuwenhuis said. "As long as the rain doesn't shut off, I think they'll turn out pretty good."

Northwest Iowa had a lot of flooding in 2024, but Nieuwenhuis said his corn crop still averaged 227 bpa last year. This year, he's expecting a significant bump in yield not just for himself, but other farms around him.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of 275-plus yields in our area," he said.

Traveling north for a fishing trip in late July, Nieuwenhuis said he saw a lot of spots in Minnesota that are drowned out from too much rain. He also has heard from farmers in southern Illinois who had to replant soybeans multiple times because of excessive rain.

"I think there are going to be some spots that are going to hold down the national yield a little bit," he said.

-- Gentry Sorenson, Iowa State University Extension field agronomist for Buena Vista, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Hancock, Kossuth, Palo Alto, Pocahontas, and Winnebago Counties:

North-central Iowa is wet with extensive rain throughout July, agronomist Gentry Sorenson said. That has led to some ponding in some low-lying fields.

"It has hampered and made fieldwork much harder to get done," he said.

Yield is still being determined, but he has seen some soybean fields that have been negatively affected by too much rain.

The derecho on July 29 also has affected some fields across northern Iowa.

When it comes to disease pressures, Sorenson said those have been relatively mild. He has seen some fields affected by Southern rust at low levels. He's also seen some other diseases such as gray leaf spot and Northern corn leaf blight. "But those are kind of typical diseases we see every year."

Sorenson also pointed to a range of stages facing corn. Some fields in early August were just pollinating, while other fields are in the milk stage.

In his nine-county area, Sorenson described "an average corn crop" in north-central and parts of northwest Iowa.

"It's obviously not terrible, but it's not super either," Sorenson said. "It's kind of in the average range, I would think, at this point."

-- Mark Recker, Fayette County, Iowa:

In northeast Iowa, farmer Mark Recker "had really high hopes" for his corn crop, but it has waned. He's now expecting a "generally good" crop.

"Early on, the stands were fantastic, I thought, corner-to-corner of the fields. This was the best-looking crop we've had in quite a while, because it seems like we had struggled early with moisture in past year and then we turned dry," he said.

It's been a while since he faced a constantly wet year. Recker's immediate area also saw a lot of rain from mid-June throughout July. The tile lines couldn't keep up, and he said his field saw some nitrogen loss.

"The top end in our part of the world has been taken off. I don't think we're going to see record yields exactly where I'm at, but it doesn't surprise me that the crop looks good around the rest of the state where I've driven in," Recker said. "It wouldn't surprise me if they are going to see some pretty high numbers."

Recker pulled some ears last week (Aug. 5) that were smaller than they should have been, he said.

Recker's yields were 235-to-240 bpa last year, depending on the field, but he thinks at the moment his corn crop will come in about 225 bpa.

"With the rain we've had, we're going to pull back toward that state average a little more by the way it looks," he said.

Recker also had soybeans planted in mid-April that needed to be replanted because they did not come up. The soybeans were short, and he wasn't sure the rows would close, but July was a good month for the soybean crop and plants put on a lot of vegetation.

"The soybeans just looked terrible for such a long time," he said. "Even three weeks ago, yield-wise you just don't know. Beans hate wet conditions, so I could never guess the yield on them, but they look better."

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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