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China a Challenge to Trump Iran Squeeze08/26 06:08
Beijing is Iran's biggest trading partner and its leading oil buyer. While
the U.S. is trying to isolate the Islamic Republic from its remaining economic
partners, President Donald Trump also is preparing to host Chinese leader Xi
Jinping next month to maintain a fragile trade truce.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The " economic onslaught " that Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent has declared on Iran's financial connections around the world may have
one major caveat: China.
Beijing is Iran's biggest trading partner and its leading oil buyer. While
the U.S. is trying to isolate the Islamic Republic from its remaining economic
partners, President Donald Trump also is preparing to host Chinese leader Xi
Jinping next month to maintain a fragile trade truce.
Absent from Bessent's remarks this week were specifics about how the Trump
administration would target China, casting doubts on how effective the new
campaign would be when the U.S. must balance putting maximum pressure on Iran
and avoiding higher tensions with China that could be costly to the American
economy.
"The announcement yesterday was very careful in my view to avoid specifics
(against China), which could have led to a disruption in the summit," Edgard
Kagan, senior adviser and Freeman Chair in China studies at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, said Tuesday. "For Xi, a state visit to
Washington is a big deal; and for Trump, hosting it is a big deal."
That means both Washington and Beijing will have a dance to do, said Kagan,
who served as U.S. ambassador to Malaysia from December 2023 until this
February.
"I think the real question is, is there room to push (the Chinese) to reduce
what they're doing with Iran, to put more pressure on the Iranian regime in a
way that doesn't lead them to say, 'This is unreasonable, and we're not going
to comply,'" he said.
China is likely to wait and see and do the minimum
In response to "Operation Economic Outcast," which Bessent announced Monday,
Beijing said its cooperation with Iran has always been "within the framework of
international law." China receives more than 80% of Iranian oil shipments but
usually through indirect channels.
Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said China-Iran
cooperation "should not be disrupted or undermined."
"China is closely monitoring relevant developments and will take all
necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its own rights and interests," Lin
said. He repeated China's opposition to "illegal unilateral sanctions."
Kagan described Beijing's remarks as "a holding response" and said Beijing
will try to do the least to comply without openly confronting the U.S.
"They've tended to be careful not crossing explicit red lines, but they
haven't addressed the spirit of what the U.S. has sought," Kagan said, pointing
to practices such as ship-to-ship oil transfers that obscure the origin of
Iranian crude oil to evade American sanctions.
Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington
think tank, said China will not go along with the new campaign if the U.S. goal
is to destroy the Iranian economy and seek the government's collapse.
But "if the goal is to exert enough pressure for Iran to make concessions on
the Strait of Hormuz and potentially ending the conflict, I think China can and
will demonstrate its cooperation without having to completely sever ties with
Iran," Sun said. "China only needs to do enough to demonstrate it is
cooperating, such as cut back on its oil import from Iran."
With a planned summit between Trump and Xi weeks away, "neither side wishes
to have a major escalation bilaterally at this point," she said. "China needs
to give U.S. something, and U.S. needs to understand and accept that it is not
going to be everything U.S. asks for."
US is not likely to act tough on China, analysts say
So far, the Trump administration has refrained from imposing sanctions on
major Chinese businesses or banks connected to the U.S. financial system and
thus vulnerable to American penalties.
The Treasury Department said Monday that it was penalizing nearly 60
Iran-linked entities, accusing them of involvement in Iran's nuclear and
missile programs, cyber activities and oil shipments.
It targeted a number of entities and individuals based in mainland China and
Hong Kong for supporting Iran's missile and nuclear programs. It sanctioned a
China-owned crude oil tanker for transporting millions of barrels of Iranian
oil to China this year as well as a Hong Kong-based business for its role in
the shadow fleet that ships out Iranian oil.
With Xi's visit coming up, Trump may not act tough on China now, said Ali
Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser on U.S.-China relations at the
International Crisis Group.
"Given how keen Trump has been to maintain both a trade truce between the
United States and China and his personal rapport with Xi, he seems unlikely to
do a volte-face just a month before Xi's state visit and adopt a highly
confrontational posture," he said.
Plus, Xi's visit to the U.S. could pave the way for Trump to return to China
in November for the leaders summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
grouping.
In his second term, Trump has been less hawkish on China than in his first
presidency and frequently touts his good relationship with Xi following a major
trade war last year that featured back-and-forth escalating tariffs. The U.S.
business community also welcomes Xi's visit, saying it's a good sign if the two
leaders meet in person, even when any substantial deals may be elusive.
"Beijing is betting that Washington will be reluctant to jeopardize the
current leader-level dynamic by targeting major Chinese entities before the
summit," said Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.
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