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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/13 10:53
Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday Monday; Wheat Flat-Lower
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7
to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7
to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock
market is weaker at midday with the S&P 28 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 18 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
mostly higher with crude up 3.30 and natural gas .06 lower. Livestock trade is
mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 88.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with a small gap higher to
start the week as we watch further weather and world event developments. On the
WASDE report Friday, corn yield was unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre (bpa)
with old-crop stocks at 2.02 billion bushels (bb) versus 2.145 bb last month.
New crop was at 1.79 bb versus 1.96 bb last month. World stocks were at 275.3
million metric tons (mmt) versus 281.2 mmt. Ethanol margins remain solid with
unleaded firming again to boost blenders. Weekly export inspections were solid
at 1.540 mmt with year-to-date pace holding at 125%. Weather is expected to
remain warmer than normal and drier than normal for most in the short term.
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show slight condition
declines and above-average development pace. On the September chart, the 20-day
moving average at $4.24 1/2 is support with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.44
as resistance, which we are testing at midday.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents higher at midday as well with trade backing
off the initial surge higher to continue to consolidate the upper end of the
range. Meal is .50 to 1.50 lower and oil is 210 to 220 higher. On the report
Friday, yield was unchanged at 53.0 bpa with old-crop carryout at 330 mb versus
340 mb last month. New crop was at 310 mb, unchanged on the month. World stocks
were at 124.2 mmt versus 124.9 mmt last month. Basis should stay flat with
crush margins improving. Weather looks to add a bit of short-term stress with
warmth and less rain for much of the belt this week. Weekly crop progress is
likely to show slight condition declines and above-average development. The
daily export wire saw 136,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China for new-crop.
Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 418,592 mt with year-to-date pace
at 82%. On the September contract, chart support is the 20-day moving average
at $11.46 with the Upper Bollinger Band at $12.04 as resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents lower with Minneapolis action leading to
start the week with trade working to consolidate after the initial surge faded
as we look for Black Sea developments along with harvest pressure easing with
row-crop action overall supportive. On the report, carryout came down to 722 mb
versus 744 mb last month. World stocks were at 272.8 mmt versus 275.4 mmt last
month. Harvest should continue to roll forth with weekly crop progress likely
to have winter wheat more than 70% harvested. Spring wheat conditions are
expected to decline slightly with above average maturity. Matif wheat is lower
with Kerch Strait developments and easing crop sizes still at the forefront as
we fade from the Friday high. Weekly export inspections remained a bit soft at
373,611 mt with year-to-date pace at 82%. On the KC September chart, support is
the 20-day moving average at $6.42, which we are working to consolidate above,
with the overnight high at $6.91 the next level of resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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