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DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/08 10:53

   Corn Futures Mixed Thursday; Soybeans Higher; Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are narrowly mixed Thursday at midday; soybean futures are 7 to 
8 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are narrowly mixed Thursday at midday; soybean futures are 7 to 
8 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is 
firmer with the DOW up 200 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points lower. 
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude off .40 and 
natural gas .25 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs sharply lower. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $1.10.


   Corn futures are narrowly mixed in quiet midday trade with trade struggling 
to build on the slight gains from Wednesday, working to ease oversold 
conditions. The USDA WASDE is due out on Friday with the trade expecting a 
light increase in the carryover that the trade argues is priced-in with our 
recent lower trade. The weekly ethanol report showed production 59,000 barrels 
per day (bpd) higher and stocks 323,000 barrels higher. Dry weather in 
Argentina is raising some concern for their crop short term with some relief 
potentially on the horizon. Weekly exports continue to be lackluster at 691,000 
metric tons (mt). On the March chart, support is at our daily low of $6.35 with 
other notable longer-term lows at the $6.12 early August low and then the $5.69 
July low. Resistance is at the $6.59 20-day moving average.


   Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade pressing 
further into the upper end of the range with oil leading products this morning 
as meal works to consolidate the recent rally with fresh export demand still 
picking up. This morning's daily export report showed 718,000 mt of soybeans 
sold to unknown and 118,000 mt to China. Meal is $7.00 to $8.00 higher, and oil 
is flat to 10 points lower, with oil looking to come off deeply oversold 
conditions, while the rally has pushed meal toward overbought to maintain crush 
margins. The market is expecting very little change on the December WASDE on 
Friday from the November soybean carryover numbers. Weekly export sales 
improved at bit at 1.72 million metric tons (mmt); 30,000 mt of new crop; 
226,000 of old meal; 15,000 of new; and 500 of oil. On the January beans, the 
trend remains strongly sideways with support from meal offset with pressure 
from bean oil and slipping outside market influence. January chart support is 
at the $14.42 20-day moving average with resistance at the $14.77 upper 
Bollinger band, which we are above at midday, and then the $14.82 3/4 2-month 
high, scored Thursday morning. 


   Wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower at midday with trade failing to extend 
the reversal seen Wednesday so far with conditions remaining oversold with 
mixed spillover from outside markets. The Plains look to remain mostly dry 
short term with cooler and wetter potential the second week as the crop heads 
towards dormancy. Market bulls hope Southern Hemisphere harvest attention may 
help turn the downward market trend in wheat with quality issues in Australia 
and drought losses in Argentina. Matif wheat values are holding light gains as 
well. The recent lower dollar and lower futures have bulls hopeful export 
business will pick up. Weekly export sales were soft at 189,900 mt. On the 
chart, KC March has support at the lower Bollinger band at $8.29 with further 
support with the fresh low at $8.27 scored Tuesday. Resistance is at the $8.79 
10-day moving average.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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